The overnight report from Gate B, dated February 1st to 2nd, describes a pressure surge from the western approach beginning at approximately 2200 hours.
The movement originated from the LaSalle direction. The Mercier corridor has been a consistent pressure source since the barricade failure in early November. The current pattern is a roughly three-week cycle: pressure builds in the LaSalle zone, flows northeast through the Angrignon buffer, and tests the western edge of the enclave. The Angrignon Fringe absorbs a portion of this movement because the open ground allows spread rather than channeling.
This particular event was larger than the previous two cycles.
The Angrignon Fringe held through the first half of the night. Movement was observed moving through the park land and dispersing along the tree line. At approximately 0100 hours, the Jolicoeur Barrier reported contact at the southwest approach. The barrier held. The improvised blockade at the bus repositioning point on Jolicoeur was tested directly for the first time since it was constructed.
The enclave did not fall. No breach was recorded at any gate. Gate B status was downgraded to unstable during the event and remains there.
Three observations from this event that affect planning:
The three-week cycle is shortening. The previous two cycles ran 22 days and 19 days. This one was 17 days. The interval is compressing. The cause is not confirmed but the most likely explanation is continued population growth in the LaSalle zone drawing from further south.
The Jolicoeur Barrier is the enclave’s most exposed point on the western approach. It was not designed to hold directed pressure. It held this time. It may not hold if the volume increases or if the approach is channeled rather than dispersed.
The Angrignon Fringe is not a buffer zone. It is a transit zone. The open ground slows movement but does not stop it. Anyone operating in the fringe should treat it as a contested approach corridor, not as safe ground.
The next pressure night is estimated between February 18th and February 22nd based on the current interval trend. This estimate should be treated as approximate. The pattern will not announce itself.
Saint-Paul-Emard is not falling. It is listening.